There were six new deaths – one person in their 50s, four in their 80s and one over 90 – compared with four the previous week. That brings the total number of deaths in New Brunswick to 472 as of Saturday. The vast majority – 81 percent – are people over the age of 70.
There were 589 new cases last week compared to 712 the week before.
“I think the fact that we’re in a stable period is good,” said Dr. Jennifer Russell, New Brunswick’s chief medical officer of health.
He pointed out that deaths have increased by two, ICU admissions have decreased by two and hospitalizations by four. These categories were all fairly stable over the summer months.
“One thing we’ve noticed is that our top has never ended up as high as we thought it would be and that’s a good thing,” Russell said.
The highest rate of hospitalizations for COVID-19 continues to be among people aged 70 to 89. 25 per cent of all admissions are to people over the age of 70, even though this age group represents only 10 per cent of New Brunswick’s population.
The 7-day moving average of hospitalizations for COVID-19 as of December 5, 2021. (Government of New Brunswick)
The number of hospital admissions for COVID-19 increased last week compared to the previous week from 31 to 35, according to the report released Wednesday afternoon.
The number of active hospitalizations also increased. There were 37 last week compared to 33 the week before.
The seven-day moving average for hospitalizations was up last week, but the seven-day moving average for cases was down.
The report also said that people who are not protected by a vaccine continue to have the highest rate of ICU admissions at 58.5 percent as of December 5, 2021, compared to 41.5 percent for the protected.
“Those people who are most at risk are those people who are not fully up to date with their vaccines,” Russell said.
Russell said everyone who is eligible for aid should go ahead and get it.
And not just for COVID-19. He urges everyone to be up to date on all vaccines, including flu, as public health officials predict a worse than usual flu season.
Hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths by age group to September 3, 2022. (Government of New Brunswick)
In New Brunswick, children between the ages of five and 11 who received their first vaccine can now receive their first booster dose. Like everyone else eligible for a booster, it must have been five months since their last shot or infection with COVID-19, whichever is more recent.
“Vaccines have been shown to provide protection against serious illness or hospitalization from COVID-19,” Russell said.
The province provides online help with booking a vaccination or by phone at 1-833-437-1424.
Pandemic or endemic?
With the lifting of restrictions in New Brunswick, it may seem to some as if the pandemic is over, but it is not, Russell said.
The sentiment that New Brunswick is now post-COVID or beyond the pandemic has been echoed several times by government officials recently. Even a cabinet minister and former health minister has got it wrong.
In a press release on Wednesday about providing adult homes with iPads, Social Development Minister Dorothy Shephard said: “Although we are no longer in a pandemic, the goal of connecting everyone is still important.”
The government later revised that statement, saying “an oversight” had occurred. The version was changed to say, “Although we are no longer in a pandemic lockdown…”
Russell said New Brunswick will take the lead from the World Health Organization and Public Health Canada, neither of which has declared the pandemic over.
“We feel like we’re going through a period of endemicity,” he said.
It means “that COVID is around. It’s going to be around for quite some time. And this transition from pandemic to endemic doesn’t mean it’s over. It means it’s resilient and circulating in our population.”
University of Ottawa epidemiologist Raywat Deonandan says entering an endemic stage of COVID at current levels of transmission would be “pretty dark.” (Evan Mitsui/CBC)
Raywat Deonandan, a global health epidemiologist and associate professor at the University of Ottawa, said there is no question that a pandemic is happening, but the definition of a pandemic is “extremely lenient.”
Deonandan said the official definition contained in the Dictionary of Epidemiology is “an epidemic occurring worldwide or over a very wide area, crossing international borders and usually affecting a large number of people”.
“That’s it,” said Deonadan. And it could apply to obesity, depression or hunger.
He says the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention makes a clear distinction between “outbreak,” “epidemic,” and “pandemic.”
“An outbreak is simply an increase in cases, more than you would normally see, and that usually happens in a defined local area. An epidemic is a large outbreak in a larger, defined area. And a pandemic is an epidemic in many countries,” Deonandan said.
Discrimination has nothing to do with the severity of the disease, he stressed. It’s about how many people are affected.
“When the WHO defines a pandemic, on the other hand, that’s an administrative, bureaucratic definition based on its own internal criteria.”
Deonandan said it will likely be the WHO that will declare the pandemic over when the time is right, and that other organizations around the world will likely follow.
But we’re not there yet, he said.
“The disease is still affecting a large number of people, jeopardizing our daily activities such as school, work and travel, and putting many people in hospital. So it is too soon to retire from this emergency mentality. ”
Immunization status, proportion and rate per 100,000 for hospitalizations and deaths reported as of December 5, 2021. (Government of New Brunswick)
Deonandan said people misuse endemics “to mean they’re extinct”.
He said it’s not a sliding scale from pandemic to endemic. It just means that there are no waves of the disease.
If COVID becomes endemic at current rates of infection without waves, “that would be very intense,” Deonandan said.
“So the goal is to get the incidence rate down to low levels and keep it there and let that be our new endemic normal.”
He said there are many endemic diseases around, such as measles and chicken pox, for example.
“If we let our foot off the brake, we would have a lot of suffering caused by measles and chicken pox, but there is a lot of public health pressure to control this endemic,” Deonandan said.
“Endemic, unfortunately, is used as an equivalent to ‘good’. It’s not good, it just means it’s the new normal.”
Regional health authorities
Meanwhile, the province’s two regional health authorities, which include in their weekly reports people admitted to hospital because of COVID-19 as well as people who were initially admitted for another reason and later tested positive for the virus, say there are 83 New Brunswickers hospitalized for either or with COVID-19, three of whom required intensive care, a decrease from the previous week. Horizon Health Network reported 55 active COVID-19 hospital admissions, but none in the ICU as of Saturday. This compares with 71 admissions and three intensive care patients the previous week. Vitalité Health Network reported 28 patients hospitalized – the same as last week – with three in intensive care, up one from the previous week, according to the network’s COVID dashboard. Horizon also reported 12 cases in hospital units across the province and 30 staff members out of work due to positive COVID tests, while Vitalité reported 89 workers out of work due to COVID and outbreaks in four units.
