We welcome back NFL betting with a bang – and a possible Super Bowl preview – when the Buffalo Bills visit the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football in Week 1. The Bills have high hopes for 2022, climbing atop the Super Bowl odds this offseason while also winning over bookies, who have moved Buffalo from a +1 underdog to a 2.5-point favorite on the road at SoFi Stadium. The Rams are rare underdogs — especially for a defending champ at home to open the season — and finished 3-0 ATS as a Cub last season, going 11-8 ATS all-time as an underdog under Sean McVay. The NFL food chain comes into its own when these top predators collide in a non-conference clash. Here are the best NFL picks and predictions for Bills at Rams.

Bills vs Rams best odds

Bills vs Rams picks and predictions

The NFL is going to go all out to promote the start of this season, and that means pushing the top men under center and two power forwards. However, the foundations of both of these franchises are stingy shortstop units. The defense will hold an early lead in this game as both offenses slowly dip their toe into the playbook – feeling things out, throwing some quick jabs, and nobody wants to make the first crucial mistake. The Bills have more margin for error since promoted offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey is calling plays for the first time since Brian Daboll defected to the Giants. I’m also keeping a close eye on Buffalo’s offensive line, as it underwent a bit of a facelift this offseason and is projected to take steps behind the 2021 unit that finished near the top of many defensive metrics. These past metrics feed into the 2022 season start odds. Los Angeles’ pass rush makes even the stoutest offensive lines crumble and will once again rank among the league’s best in getting to the QB. Head coach Sean McVay is well aware of the damage Bills QB Josh Allen can do and will look to disrupt him early by not allowing the Bills offense to develop big plays, find its rhythm or set the pace for this fight. Part of that game plan will also fall on LA’s offense, which looks to return to more balance in its play calling. McVay has never shied away from running the ball, but an injury to RB Cam Akers last year took much of the pop out of the ground game, leaving LA to throw more. With Akers healthy, Los Angeles will mix in a lot of handoffs — at least early, as it sees what the Bills bring defensively while keeping Allen at bay. McVay showed a much slower pace on offense in first halves last season, ranking 13th in seconds per game before stepping it up in the final 30 minutes (eighth-fastest). That whole game total is high, 52 to 53 points in most books, but I’m counting on a slower start on Thursday. Added to these above angles is the specter of the NFL Kickoff Game that serves as the Rams’ Super Bowl banner raiser. The team will hold a ceremony just before kickoff, which, along with renditions of the national anthem and “Lift Every Voice and Sing,” as well as the usual (Hollywood-style) pomp of the season opener, will put the players on the ice between pregame warmups and actually hitting someone. We see a similar situation in Super Bowl games, which take players from warm-ups to the locker room for an extended stay before kickoff. This often leads to flat starts and subpar first quarters when combined with big game nerves, guys playing a little tight, rusty offseasons and hungry defenses that rise up to really hit someone. Going back to 2010, NFL players had scored an average of 8.3 points in the first quarter, and eight of those twelve had scored seven or fewer points in the first 15 minutes. Not only has the increase in total play pushed the 1Q Over/Under to 10 points in some books (and the full-game Over could take a big hit once both sides get going), but we’re also dealing with two defensive units — consistent in their approach with DC’s respective Leslie Frazier and Raheem Morris – ranked No. 2 and No. 3 in defensive DVOA in first quarters by Football Outsiders in 2021. Some shops are trading below 9.5 (+100) while others are below 10 (-104), so go get this push protection for almost no extra cost. My Best Bet: First Quarter Under 10 (-104 on FanDuel) Best Bills vs Rams Bonus If you sign up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 NFL season, here are two of the best bonuses available*: A) New users to FanDuel can bet $5 and get $150 in free bets! register now B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! register now *Eligible US locations only. Also, check out our full list of NFL promo codes for 2022.

Bills vs Rams betting preview

Jump to:•Spread Analysis •Over/Under Analysis •Game Info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to Know

Diffusion analysis

This NFL opener was the first spread on the board for the 2022 season, and these early bird series had Los Angeles as a 1-point home favorite to host the Bills. The Sportsbook took some money early on Buffalo and pushed that spread to pick’em then over the fence at Bills -1. When news broke that Rams QB Matthew Stafford was dealing with “abnormal” elbow soreness during training camp, players bet on those reports in an attempt to pre-empt any further injury news and reached the spread all the way to Buffalo – 2.5. But with the news that Stafford is no longer suffering, some books have gone back to Bills -2 or dealing with LA +2.5 (-115). Betting spreads from many operators report a heavy one-sided grip on Buffalo, having taken the bulk of those bets during the summer months. Covers NFL betting analysis

Over/Under analysis

That Over/Under number hit the board around 52.5 and dropped to 51.5 points in early August with players playing well with Stafford’s elbow issues. However, the Over has attracted action in the past two weeks and this total reached as high as 53.5 points before returning to 52.5 and some buyback in the Under sinking the Over/Under to 52 as of this writing. Public players tend to gravitate toward the Over in primetime games, and with two solid passing games and star quarterbacks, there could be more money in the Over showing up before Thursday night’s opener.

Bills vs Rams game info

• Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA • Date: Thursday, September 8, 2022 • Start: 8:20 p.m. ET• Television: NBC

Bills vs. Rams key injuries

Find our latest NFL injury reports.

Bills vs Rams weather

Track game conditions with live NFL weather information and learn how the weather affects NFL betting.

Since 2000, Week 1 NFL games with cumulative totals of 50 points or more are 14-9-1 O/U (60.4% Over). Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Rams.