Never look ahead. It has to be week by week. It’s a four-quarter season, with the first quarter being the most important right now. Coach-speak. Don’t you love it? Well, it’s also about the choice of games. Getting off to a good start is imperative if you want to have a chance to have a winning season — and maybe even win it all. It’s also hard to get off to a good start. There is so much uncertainty, especially with all the free agency and coaching changes every year. Here are some tips to get you started quickly:
- Ignore the preseason. It means nothing.
- Look for teams that return a lot of veteran players to get off to a good start.
- Passersby and passers-by in a hurry. This is the league. Get these groups – especially early.
With that, it’s time for my first picks of the season. I’ll be picking the games here each week, also against the spread in our CBSSports.com expert picks, and giving my best bets again each week on the Pick Six Podcast.
Last year was a good season. Let’s get on with it. After all, I had a great offseason, I came into this season healed from all my injuries and I feel confident that I can win it all.
Of course, I’ll take it one option at a time.
One winner at a time.
We’re not looking forward to this guy. Not when a Week 1 failure can ruin an entire season.
Featured Game | Los Angeles Rams vs. Buffalo Bills
The home team coming off the Super Bowl has played well in those games, going 10-5-1. But I’ll buck that trend and take the Bills to cover and win this game. Buffalo will be explosive on offense all year and it starts here. But the biggest difference is that they have Von Miller and the Rams don’t. This will mean the game will be late for the Bills to win. Pick: Bills 30, Rams 24 Featured Game | Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
These two groups don’t like each other and it usually shows. The Saints are the better team, but what will they get from Jameis Winston on a weekly basis? Marcus Mariota starts for the Falcons. He can move, but the Saints defense has a chance to be special. They will limit Atlanta’s offense here and Winston will make quite a few plays down the field. Pick: Saints 29, Falcons 13 Featured Game | Carolina Panthers vs. Cleveland Browns
This is the Baker Mayfield Bowl. He is the starting quarterback for the Panthers after being traded by the Browns for Deshaun Watson, who is now suspended. Jacoby Brissett will start for the Browns. Mayfield has plenty of skill talent around him and the Panthers young defense will improve. Carolina wins it as Mayfield beats his old team. Pick: Panthers 23, Browns 17 Featured Game | Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers
This is Trey Lance’s first game as the starting quarterback for the 49ers. This can lead to a lot of stress on the road. But the 49ers are clearly the better team. Kyle Shanahan will relieve Lance. Justin Fields will have trouble behind a shaky line for the Bears against a good 49ers defense. The 49ers are winning big. Pick: 49ers 23, Bears 14 Featured Game | Detroit Lions vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Steelers come in as a division dog, a role Mike Tomlin has done well as coach, going 14-6. There are concerns about the Steelers offensive line, which is why this number is inflated. But Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has been dealing with appendicitis throughout the preseason, which may lead to some rust. The Steelers will hang around in this one, but the Bengals will win it late. Pick: Bengals 23, Steelers 20 Featured Game | Detroit Lions vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles appear to have the makings of a deep playoff team. That’s if quarterback Jalen Hurts can make strides as a passer, which he supposedly did this offseason. The Lions will be a tough team every week, taking on the personality of their coach. But dealing with this Eagles offense will be a challenge for their defense. Hurts is off to a good start to his season. Pick: Eagles 31, Lions 21 Featured Game | Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts
This will be Matt Ryan’s first game as the Colts’ quarterback since coming in a trade. Ryan is still more than capable of lighting things up, which will prove to be a challenge for the Texans defense. They can also hit Jonathan Taylor. Davis Mills looked good for the Texans late last year, which will continue here. Look for lots of points in a tight game. Pick: Colts 31, Texans 27 Featured Game | Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
The Patriots are in an unusual situation as a road dog here. They are coming off a shaky preseason, while Miami is coming off a preseason filled with Tua Tagovailoa hype. He has a lot of weapons and looked good, which makes it a big game for him. I think Mike McDaniel will get the ball to his playmakers quickly and cause problems for a defense that isn’t as talented as it has been in years past. The Dolphins have beaten the Patriots three straight. Make it four. Pick: Dolphins 24, Patriots 19 Featured Game | New York Jets vs. Baltimore Ravens
That could be Joe Flacco starting for the Jets against his former team if Zach Wilson doesn’t return from a knee injury. Flacco won a Super Bowl for the Ravens, but it’s been a while since he did. Lamar Jackson is coming back healthy after a bad 2021 season and I think he’s off to a good start here. The Ravens have some pass rush questions, but they’ll overcome that against their old quarterback. It is near. Pick: Ravens 26, Jets 23 Featured Game | Washington Commanders vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
That will be former Eagles coach Doug Pederson going up against former Eagles quarterback in Carson Wentz. The Jaguars beat Wentz and the Colts last year in the finals, which is why he’s no longer in Indianapolis. They will hit him again. The Jaguars defense has a chance to be very good, and it shows here. Pick: Jaguars 21, Commanders 17 Featured Game | Tennessee Titans vs. New York Giants
The Titans suffered a blow to their defense last week when Harold Landry went down with a torn ACL. This will affect the pass…
